The hottest Petrochemical futures run counter to c

2022-08-13
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Petrochemical futures run counter to crude oil, and LLDPE volume soared

although crude oil prices have recently corrected rapidly, domestic petrochemical futures varieties seem to have ignored. Yesterday, LLDPE, PVC and PTA, the three major petrochemical varieties, rose together, of which the trend of LLDPE was the most prominent, with capital increases of more than 15000 hands. Insiders said that there are two reasons for the rise of petrochemical varieties such as LLDPE. One is that the main funds represented by Zhejiang hot money have entered the market recently, which has a great impact on the market; Second, the inventory is low, some varieties will also face factors such as shutdown and maintenance in summer, and the demand will also increase to a certain extent. In the future, the focus of petrochemical varieties may shift upward, but as the demand is significantly lower than last year, there will be greater upward pressure in the future. However, some experts questioned that the prices of LLDPE and PVC futures may be overestimated in this rise

lldpe volume led to a sharp rise in petrochemical varieties

yesterday's LLDPE showed a hot increase in trading volume and positions. The main contract l0909 opened for 10175 yuan, with a maximum of 10430 yuan, a minimum of 10150 yuan, and a closing of 10345 yuan, an increase of 280 yuan over the previous trading day. The viscosity of the oil is too high or the temperature of the oil is too low, resulting in difficulties in oil absorption by the oil pump. This price is also a recent high for LLDPE, with trading volume increasing by 384000 to 649000 hands, The position increased by 12080 to 117000. The total position of this variety increased from 125000 hands to 140000 hands, and the trading volume doubled

due to LLDPE's belt work, PVC and PTA also rose. Pta909 opened at 6978 yuan and finally closed at 7048 yuan, up 72 yuan, with a maximum of 7072 yuan and a minimum of 6976 yuan during the day. A total of 378952 transactions were concluded, with a position of 162216, an increase of 6390 compared with the previous trading day. PVC futures closed slightly higher. The main contract v909 opened at 6850 yuan and closed at 6870 yuan at the end of the day, up 35 points from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The transaction was enlarged. 88000 transactions were made throughout the day, 28000 more than the previous trading day, 40500 positions and 110 daily positions

industry insiders said that the rise of petrochemical varieties was not unrelated to the large-scale intervention of funds. From the position ranking of LLDPE, the position increase of Zhejiang funds is relatively obvious. The first long and short positions of the 909 contract were in Yongan, Zhejiang Province. Most of them were unilateral. Yesterday, they increased their positions by 3203 to 7046 hands, and the short positions also increased their holdings by 881 to 3128 hands. It can be seen that Zhejiang funds are quite active in LLDPE. In addition, on the pvc909 contract, a large number of Zhejiang seats occupy the forefront of the long and short list; On pta909, the first and third places of many parties are Zhejiang seats, and the first three of the empty side are included by Zhejiang. "These Zhejiang Department funds are concentrated in the top few and have a relatively large impact on the market." Mainland futures analyst Xu Chao said

in addition, the spot factor also has some positive effects on petrochemical products. For example, LLDPE has a low inventory recently, and in the summer, some manufacturers will stop production for maintenance, resulting in tight supply. PVC is due to the recent increase in real estate operating rate and the positive downstream demand; PTA also has the factor of spot tension

is the price of petrochemical futures overvalued

"now the price of LLDPE is a little overestimated," said Liu Wenwang, an analyst at Yong'an futures. LLDPE has been strong recently, first of all, because of speculation that overseas ethylene monomers are tight, and the price of upstream raw materials is rising, but most domestic factories are integrated production, and the upstream material is directly crude oil. Therefore, the current price of LLDPE is too high. At the same time, demand is getting better recently. For example, the state's subsidies for white appliances have made some home appliance manufacturers' orders exceed expectations, and inventories have been consumed in large quantities. It is understandable that prices have risen. "But LLDPE is only used for the production of film and packaging film, and should not rise so much." Liu Wenwang said, "in addition, PTA's inventory has been relatively low and the spot is tight, but this should be reflected in the spot month, and the rise of 909 contract seems a little overestimated."

Liu Wenwang said that the price of PVC was not overestimated by comparison. At present, Shanxi has reduced a lot of coal production, and the supply of high-quality coal may become tight across the country, which is good for PVC to run fast

Xu Chao believes that the future market of petrochemical varieties should still pay attention to the trend of foreign markets. LLDPE showed obvious breakthrough signs yesterday, with the focus moving upward, but the possibility of unilateral rise is small, because the current market demand is still greatly reduced compared with the same period last year, so it is difficult to say how much it can support the price. In addition, the pressure of PTA is higher than that of LLDPE

why does Petrochemical futures run counter to crude oil

as of press time, the crude oil quotation of U.S. electronic disk has fallen to $63. Recently, crude oil is undergoing a sharp correction, but petrochemical products, as downstream products, are doing well. "The principle of measuring the displacement of the cross beam of petrochemical production is roughly the same as that of deformation measurement. 1 the correlation between the sample and crude oil is not particularly strong," Xu Chao said. PTA has been relatively flat in May and June, but crude oil increased greatly during that time. "The proportion of crude oil prices reflected in petrochemical products is very small, and the proportion of crude oil callback this time is not very large."

Liu Wenwang believes that from the characteristics of various petrochemical varieties, it is normal not to follow crude oil. Take PVC as an example. In China, PVC is mainly produced by calcium carbide method, and most of its upstream products come from coal, so it often "ignores" the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand of LLDPE is asymmetric, and the price strategy of Sinopec and PetroChina has a greater impact on it. Only PTA is slightly different. "If the domestic expected unit is put into operation smoothly, it means that PTA price will follow the trend of gasoline, and PTA will be highly related to crude oil at that time." Liu Wenwang said

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