Pay attention to the new developments in China's steel industry
although the calendar of 2008 has just been lifted for more than 90 days. However, the latest comprehensive information shows that now I will tell you a few points. After you abide by them, or when all kinds of "variables" encountered by China's steel industry recently are the largest, it is also when the word "fashion" - the "inflection point" is frequently cited by public opinion
at the beginning of 2008, a series of important "variables" have had an important impact on China's steel production, circulation and consumption directly or indirectly... The central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice; Rare ice and snow disasters in South China; The international open price negotiation results of iron ore this year led to a sharp rise in the agreed price of imported iron ore in China (some other related follow-up negotiations are still ongoing); The necessary supporting conditions for the steel industry, "raw fuel" and "coal and electricity transportation" are generally bullish; The impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis spread; The dollar continues to depreciate; The total export volume of steel products tends to decline; The expenses during the period of the enterprise increased significantly; The pressure of environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing... The price of global steel products is entering a new high price stage
obviously, at the end of last year, our prediction that "uncertainties in the development of China's iron and steel industry in 2008 have increased, and we cannot be blindly optimistic about the development trend of the iron and steel industry in 2008" has been "fulfilled" almost in January and February in advance. As far as the current situation is concerned, it is more important for us to pay close attention to a series of more complex new developments highlighted in the development of the steel industry
the current sharp rise in steel prices has exceeded the burden of rising costs caused by the rise in the prices of major raw fuels. The factors supporting the rise in steel prices have been overdrawn in advance
data show that steel prices have soared in the two months since 2008. Compared with the end of last year, the prices of rebar, medium plate, hot rolled coil and galvanized sheet increased by more than 12%, while the prices of cold rolled sheet increased by 18.58%. In addition, the prices of coking coal, iron concentrate, metallurgical coke and other necessary raw materials or auxiliary materials for steel production have increased significantly
according to the comprehensive situation and actual feedback, China's steel market price level rose too much in the first ten days of March this year, which has exhausted the space for the expected rise in steel price due to the rise in cost. Among them, the steel distributors' expectations for the price rise in the later stage of the market are too high, and the inventory increases, falsely increasing the market demand. The number of steel circulation enterprises in China is huge, and the amount of intermediate inventory has a great impact on market fluctuations. We must always pay attention to this phenomenon and be vigilant not to be confused by some illusions... Here, some steel varieties in the domestic market have shown or begun to show signs of "price testing machine is no exception upside down"
we should also note that as of the beginning of March, 2008, the market price of steel in China has been at a high level in the world. If this high price level continues to appear, it will inevitably lead to the recovery of imports, the decline of exports, the accelerated release of domestic excess steel production capacity, and the transformation of the domestic market from short supply to excess supply and the rise of social inventories, which will increase the possibility of price decline and fluctuation, and then increase the instability of prices
the profit realized by steel enterprises shows a phenomenon of polarization, and the scope of enterprise losses expands.
there is a set of figures that should arouse my correct and skilled experimental operation of unified 1. We should pay enough attention: in this month, although the total profit of China's steel industry increased by more than 20% year-on-year, the profit growth realized by steel enterprises fell, and the economic benefits of steel enterprises showed a trend of polarization, and the scope of enterprise losses expanded
can be well guaranteed. According to the relevant statistics of the comprehensive summary of Zoomlion steel, 51 of the 93 iron and steel enterprises have increased profits year on year, and 5 have turned losses into profits. 60.2% of these enterprises have improved their benefits; The profits of 22 enterprises decreased year-on-year, and 9 enterprises changed from profit to loss, accounting for 33.3% of such enterprises with poor benefits. Among the 93 enterprises, 15 suffered losses, with a year-on-year increase of 4, with a loss of 1.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.82 times. Among them, four enterprises lost more than 50million yuan
the above situation shows that the profits of China's iron and steel enterprises have begun to show polarization, and their profits tend to concentrate on large enterprise groups with comprehensive strength on the whole. The reasons may mainly include: Steel Enterprises Based on market-oriented procurement of raw materials, in the case of faster cost increases, the rise in steel prices did not cover the rise in costs; In recent years, the rapid growth of steel production in China has made the mining of ore slightly lagging behind. Some small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises do not have sufficient possession and reserves of raw materials such as ore, and the constraints of raw materials on steel production are highlighted; Natural disasters have a direct or indirect impact on steel enterprises in some regions, and so on
at present, we should also pay attention to a new trend: in some provinces where small and medium-sized steel mills are concentrated, a number of small-scale local steel mills have actually stopped production or are in the state of semi stop production. If this situation continues or develops into reality and expands, it may have a certain impact on the next step of the total steel production capacity, the total market demand for iron ore raw materials and related auxiliary materials, and then affect the changes in the prices of relevant factors in the market
it is estimated that if the current "cost environment" remains, the profits of China's steel industry will be transferred to low-cost enterprises in the future, especially to enterprises with upstream resource advantages, including large steel groups with iron ore, coal, coke and other resources, including some advantageous enterprises with strong financial strength, significant economies of scale, advanced equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection